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Predictions of Climate Change

Posted on 2005.10.19 at 09:30
Tags: , , ,
Observation:
"The debate about whether there is a global warming signal now is over, at least for rational people," said Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California. "The models got it right. If a politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe these models, that is no longer tenable." ... [Natural] variation in the Earth’s climate, or changes in solar activity or volcanic eruptions, which have been suggested as alternative explanations for rising temperatures, could not explain the data collected in the real world. Models based on man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, however, matched the observations almost precisely.

Expectations:
  • The desert Southwest will experience more heat waves of greater intensity, combined with less summer precipitation. Water is already at a premium in the four-corners states and southern Nevada and, as years pass, even less water will be available for the region's burgeoning populations, with extreme hot events increasing in frequency by as much as 500 percent.

  • The Gulf Coast will be hotter and will receive its precipitation in greater volumes over shorter time periods. "The region actually will get more rainfall than it does now, but it will not be steady," Diffenbaugh said. "We project more dry spells punctuated by heavier rainfalls. We need to perform further analyses to understand how much of this is related to tropical cyclone activity."

  • In the northeastern United States – roughly the region east of Illinois and north of Kentucky – summers will be longer and hotter. "Imagine the weather during the hottest two weeks of the year," Diffenbaugh said. "The area could experience temperatures in that range lasting for periods of up to two months by century's end."

  • Similarly, the continental United States will experience an overall warming trend: Temperatures now experienced during the coldest two weeks of the year will be a past memory, and winter's length will diminish as well, according to the model.


    Good luck, everyone.

    Meshuggah, "Closed Eye Visuals"

    Comments:


    suki
    kurbish at 2005-10-19 16:31 (UTC) (Permalink)
    oh, it scares me so. :/
    ...
    my_moleskine at 2005-10-19 17:08 (UTC) (Permalink)
    Right there with you... :-|
    Lnorigb
    lnorigb at 2005-10-19 17:31 (UTC) (Permalink)
    ita!!!!

    scarey but its our kidskids who will suffer the most i think.

    ~
    ...
    my_moleskine at 2005-10-19 17:34 (UTC) (Permalink)
    Agreed, -- which seems even seems worse to me.

    (Looking forward to seeing you today. We're on our way to an appointment now.)
    red_leaf_dancer
    katuah at 2005-10-19 18:07 (UTC) (Permalink)
    ... unless, of course, the methane from under the arctic permafrost hyperaccelerates the warming trend when it releases, and we go from "hot earth" to "near Venusian" in a season...

    ... or the Gulf Stream shutdown not only freezes northeast US and great swaths of Europe, but also leads to a cascade of deep-ocean current changes that totally alter large-scale patterns and kill 80% of oceanic life, leading to mass starvation & widespread extinction...

    ... or we could just set off a few nukes every coupla years to keep dust circulating and moderate the climate that way. the global sacrifice zone would be immense, and thousands would die of fallout-related radiation sicknesses, but we would buy some time to find new-science "CO2 scrubbers"...

    ... or avian flu could wipe out 150 million people and cause the global economy to collapse, which would in turn reduce emissions significantly...

    ... cheers!
    ...
    my_moleskine at 2005-10-19 20:16 (UTC) (Permalink)
    "Happy happy joy joy! Happy happy joy joy! ...etc." :-p

    *sigh*

    But first, "Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeer's Wilma!"
    siomaa at 2005-10-19 19:56 (UTC) (Permalink)
    this totally makes sense.I was telling dh that around this time when we were growing up in NC it used to be so cold we would wear two layers of clothes to go the state fair.It is at this time every year and it is totally hot now.the earth is changing. :(

    L
    ...
    my_moleskine at 2005-10-19 20:17 (UTC) (Permalink)
    It's appropriate that they've just released the Chicken Little movie, yeah?
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